Yuriko Lily Miyazaki vs Victoria Allen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge backing the home favourite Miyazaki at 1.379 based on Allen's weak recent form; edge is modest and subject to uncertainty from limited data.
Highlights
- • Market-implied home probability ~72.4%; our estimate 76.0%
- • Positive EV of ~+4.8% at the current price
Pros
- + Opponent (Allen) has a poor recent record and form
- + Current price offers a small but demonstrable edge versus our probability
Cons
- - Research lacks direct performance data for Miyazaki, increasing model uncertainty
- - EV is modest; variance in tennis matches can erase short-term gains
Details
We compare the market price (home 1.379 -> implied 72.4%) to our modelled chance for Yuriko Lily Miyazaki. The available research shows Victoria Allen has a 10-22 record with poor recent form and multiple losses in her last matches, indicating a below-par level coming into this ITF R16 match. With home-court status and the market already favouring Miyazaki, we estimate Miyazaki's true win probability at 76.0%, which is above the market-implied 72.4% and creates positive expected value. At the quoted decimal 1.379 the EV = 0.76 * 1.379 - 1 = +0.048 (about +4.8% ROI). We acknowledge limited direct information on Miyazaki in the provided research and therefore keep the probability conservative, but the differential versus Allen's documented poor form supports a small, positive edge.
Key factors
- • Victoria Allen's documented 10-22 record and recent losing form
- • Market already prices Miyazaki as clear favourite (implied ~72.4%)
- • Limited direct data on Miyazaki increases uncertainty despite value