Highlights

• • Market implied probability for Miyazaki: ~69.4% (1.44)
• • Our evidence-based win probability estimate for Miyazaki: 38% → no value at current price

Pros

• + Clear, conservative estimate grounded in provided season record and recent results
• + Avoids risking bankroll on a market price that appears disconnected from available form data

Cons

• - Lack of data on Tiphanie Lemaitre increases uncertainty and could mean we understate Miyazaki's chance
• - If additional info (injuries, head-to-head, or stronger opponent weaknesses) exists outside provided research, our conclusion may change

Details

The market prices Yuriko Miyazaki as a strong favorite at 1.44 (implied probability ~69.4%). However, Miyazaki's recorded season win rate (10-21 across 31 matches = ~32%) and recent results shown in the profile indicate poor form with consecutive losses in early September. We have no reliable data on Tiphanie Lemaitre in the provided research to justify why Miyazaki should be priced so heavily in her favor. Using a conservative, evidence-based estimate for Miyazaki's true win probability (~38%) produces a large negative expected value at the offered 1.44 price (EV ≈ -0.453). Given the lack of supporting evidence that Miyazaki deserves the market's implied ~69% chance, there is no value to back her at current odds and insufficient information to justify an away play. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Miyazaki season win rate 10-21 (≈32%) — weak overall record in provided span
• • Recent match results show consecutive losses in early September, indicating poor form
• • Market implies ~69.4% for Miyazaki (1/1.44) which conflicts with the available performance data
• • No information provided on Tiphanie Lemaitre to justify the market skew toward Miyazaki
• • High uncertainty in matchup context (surface/conditions/opponent form) increases risk of market mispricing