Highlights

• • Implied market probability (~71.7%) is below our 76% estimate
• • Kusuhara’s larger sample size and higher win rate reduce upset risk

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (≈5.9% ROI)
• + Clear experience and form advantage on hard courts

Cons

• - Small-sample noise and higher variance in lower-tier events (possible upsets)
• - Limited direct head-to-head or injury data in the provided research

Details

We estimate Yusuke Kusuhara is the stronger player on hard courts and represents value at the current market price. Kusuhara has a substantially larger match sample (33 matches, 19-14) and a higher win rate than Hiromasa Koyama (9 matches, 2-7). Both players are coded as hard-court players in the provided data, but Kusuhara's greater experience and win volume reduce variance and favour him in a one-off match. The current moneyline of 1.394 implies a win probability of ~71.7%; based on comparative records, recent form and surface alignment we assign a true win probability of 76%, which makes the 1.394 price +EV. There are no reported injuries in the provided research to materially change expectations, but limited data for Koyama and the inherent variance in lower-tier events keep some risk. Using the quoted odds (1.394) we calculate EV = 0.76 * 1.394 - 1 = 0.05944 (≈5.94% ROI), which is positive and justifies a recommended back of the home player at available prices.

Key factors

• • Kusuhara has a larger match sample and substantially better overall win rate (19-14 vs 2-7)
• • Both players listed as hard-court competitors; Kusuhara’s experience on hard reduces variance
• • Market-implied probability (≈71.7%) is below our 76% fair estimate, creating positive EV