Yusuke Takahashi vs Shunsuke Nakagawa
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the away underdog (Nakagawa) at 4.17 because we estimate his true win probability at ~28%, producing about a 16.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake versus market pricing.
Highlights
- • Market implies 83.4% for Takahashi — likely too high
- • Estimated Nakagawa win probability (28%) requires only ~3.571 decimal to break even; current 4.17 offers value
Pros
- + Clear edge in market vs our probability model yields positive EV
- + Both players' recent losses and small-sample variability increase upset potential
Cons
- - Takahashi is the stronger player on paper (60% career win rate) and heavy favorite behavior can hold
- - Limited head-to-head and small career samples create model uncertainty
Details
We find value on the away moneyline (Shunsuke Nakagawa) because the market implies a 24.0% win chance at 4.17, which appears too low given the comparative form and surface profiles in the research. Yusuke Takahashi's career win rate (39/65 = 60%) versus Shunsuke Nakagawa's (11/24 = 45.8%) shows a gap but not one that justifies an 83.4% market probability for Takahashi. Both players primarily compete on hard courts and recent results show both with losses in recent events, reducing the likelihood of a near-lock outcome. Given sample-size limitations and variance at ITF level, we estimate Nakagawa's true chance higher than market at 28.0%, which produces positive expected value at the quoted 4.17 price.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (24.0%) seems overstated for heavy favorite given both players' records
- • Both players primarily play on hard courts and recent form shows vulnerability (recent losses)
- • Small sample sizes and ITF-level variance increase chance of underdog upset