Highlights

• • Cerundolo better career win rate and larger sample size
• • Current market price 1.68 slightly underestimates our 60% probability

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ +0.8%)
• + Decision driven by clear win-rate differential in the provided data

Cons

• - Edge is very small — outcome variance in a single tennis match can easily negate the ROI
• - Research lacked detailed surface-specific form, head-to-head or injury information

Details

We see value backing Juan Manuel Cerundolo at the current market price. Cerundolo's career win rate in the provided data is ~65% (56–30 over 86 matches) versus Yuta Shimizu's ~57% (33–25 over 58 matches), and Cerundolo also has a larger sample of matches which supports a more stable estimate. The market decimal for Cerundolo is 1.68 (implied probability 59.5%). We estimate Cerundolo's true win probability at 60.0% based on superior overall win rate and comparable recent results; this implies a fair price of 1.667. At the quoted 1.68 there is a small positive edge: EV = 0.60 * 1.68 - 1 = +0.008 (0.8% ROI). There is limited granular surface/condition and no injury detail in the provided research, so our edge is modest and rests mainly on career win-rate differential and match experience.

Key factors

• • Cerundolo's stronger career win rate (56–30, ~65%) vs Shimizu (33–25, ~57%)
• • Larger match sample for Cerundolo (86 matches vs 58) gives more stable baseline
• • Market implied probability (59.5% at 1.68) is marginally below our 60% estimate leading to a small positive EV