Highlights

• • Cerundolo is the clear market favorite and has the stronger season record
• • Shimizu would need odds ≥ 2.703 to represent value based on our estimate

Pros

• + Shimizu is the underdog and could be slightly undervalued on faster grass if he serves well
• + No reported injuries for either player in the provided data

Cons

• - Cerundolo's superior overall record and experience weigh against the underdog
• - Current price for Shimizu (2.37) does not clear our value threshold

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities (Cerundolo ~62.8%, Shimizu ~42.2%) to our estimated win chances. Cerundolo has a stronger overall record (56-30 vs 33-25) and more match experience this season, and both players have grass experience so surface doesn't create a clear advantage for the underdog. Recent form shows both competing at the US Open, with mixed results. Given the available information and absence of injuries or a convincing grass-specific edge for Shimizu, we estimate Shimizu's true win probability is below the market-implied level required to justify betting the 2.37 price, so there is no positive expected value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies Cerundolo ~62.8% (1.592) and Shimizu ~42.2% (2.37)
• • Cerundolo has a stronger season record and greater match volume (56-30 vs 33-25)
• • Both players have grass experience; no clear injury or form edge for Shimizu