Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Oki: 63.3% vs our 58% estimate.
• • No positive EV on either side at current prices; minimum fair price for Oki is ~1.724.

Pros

• + Oki has slightly more match experience and marginally better recent form on hard courts.
• + Both players' recent results are available on the same surface, simplifying the matchup read.

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes and few reliable indicators — high variance in outcomes.
• - Market already favors Oki strongly; current odds offer no value based on our probability estimate.

Details

We compare the market price (Yuto Oki 1.58, implied 63.3%) to our estimate of the true win probability for Yuto at ~58%. Both players have limited match samples on hard courts and similar recent results, but Oki has more matches and slightly better form. At our 58% estimate, the minimum fair decimal price is ~1.724; the current 1.58 is too short and produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.58*1.58 - 1 = -0.084). The away price (Taketo 2.25, implied 44.4%) would only be value if Taketo's true chance were ≥44.4%, which our head-to-head-less, small-sample read does not support (we estimate Taketo ~42%). Given both comparisons, neither side offers positive EV at the quoted odds, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have small sample sizes; results are noisy and high variance.
• • Surface alignment: both have recent hard-court matches, with Oki showing slightly more activity and wins.
• • Market implies a much higher probability for Oki (63%) than our estimate (58%), removing value at current prices.