Highlights

• • Market implies ~43.5% for home but we estimate ~50%
• • Required fair odds are 2.00; current 2.30 offers value

Pros

• + Significant edge vs market-implied probability at current price
• + Simple, conservative estimate based on symmetric datasets reduces overreach risk

Cons

• - Limited data depth and no H2H or injury detail increases outcome variance
• - If undisclosed factors (fitness, travel, recent practice) favor the away player, value evaporates

Details

We see a clear market lean to the away player at 1.56 (implied ~64.1%), while the home price of 2.30 implies only ~43.5%. Both players' publicly available records and recent form in the research are essentially identical (10-21, same surfaces, similar recent results), so we view this as a matchup without a meaningful edge for the listed favorite. Based on parity in form, surface experience and no injury or H2H information favoring one player, we estimate the true win probability for Yuyao Li (home) at 50.0%. At that probability the required fair odds are 2.00 (1/0.50); the current 2.30 offers value. EV calculation at the quoted price: EV = 0.50 * 2.30 - 1 = +0.15 (15% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the home player because the market appears to overprice the away player and underprice the home player relative to our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Surface experience (clay/hard) and recent results do not indicate a clear advantage
• • Market heavily favors the away player (1.56) creating a gap vs our estimated probability