Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 1.606 = 62.3% (break-even)
• • Our estimated true probability = 55.0% → negative EV at current price

Pros

• + Home price reflects a clear favorite, so volatility should be lower than a toss-up
• + Both players have experience on clay/hard, so no surface mismatch obvious

Cons

• - Insufficient data on doubles partners prevents confident edge identification
• - Market margin (~6%) and similar player records mean the favorite price is overpriced vs our estimate

Details

We view the market-implied probability for the home pair (1.606) as about 62.3%, but the research gives no clear performance edge for either side: the two named players (Alicia Herrero Linana and Arianne Hartono) show nearly identical records (10-21), similar surface profiles (Clay/Hard), and recent results that do not indicate a swing in form. We lack data on their doubles partners' recent form (Yvonne Cavalle-Reimers and Prarthana Thombare) and there is no H2H to adjust our view. Adjusting for the market margin (~6%), uncertainty around partners, and similar career trajectories, we estimate the true win probability for the home team at ~55.0%. The home side would need a win probability >62.29% to be profitable at the quoted 1.606 price (break-even p = 1/1.606). Because our estimated probability (55.0%) is meaningfully below that threshold, the house price offers negative expected value. We therefore recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both named players have almost identical recent records (10-21), giving no clear form edge
• • No usable information about doubles partners' current form, increasing uncertainty
• • Market-implied home probability (~62.3%) exceeds our estimated true probability (~55%), so no value