Z. Fuchs/W. Thayne vs M. Giunta/G. Noce

Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for home: 28.0%
• • Breakeven (min) decimal odds for home to be +EV: 3.571; current 3.55 yields slight negative EV

Pros

• + If market moves to home >= 3.571 it would be a +EV opportunity
• + Doubles matches at challengers can be volatile — occasional pricing inefficiencies occur

Cons

• - Current price is marginally insufficient to justify a bet
• - No external data on form, surface suitability or injuries increases uncertainty

Details

We compared the market price (Home 3.55, Away 1.26) against a conservative estimated win probability for the home pair. The book implies the away team has ~79.4% win probability, while the home team is priced at ~28.2% implied chance. Lacking recent form, H2H, surface, or injury data, we adopt a cautious estimated_true_probability of 28.0% for the home side. At that estimate the break-even decimal price is 3.571; the current home price of 3.55 is slightly short of that threshold, producing a marginal negative expected value (EV = -0.006 per unit at the quoted 3.55). Given the very limited information and the small negative EV, we do not recommend taking the home underdog at current prices. If a better price (>= 3.571) becomes available, the home side would represent a value play.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the away team (1.26), implying ~79% win chance
• • No available external data on recent form, surface or injuries — we use a conservative estimate
• • Current home price (3.55) is just below our breakeven threshold (3.571) for value