Highlights

• • Market implies away ~30.8%; we estimate ~55%
• • EV at current price ~0.788 (78.75% ROI per unit)

Pros

• + Large gap between our estimated probability and market price
• + Away price 3.25 produces strong theoretical ROI at our estimate

Cons

• - Very limited data on both players in research — high uncertainty
• - No head-to-head, injury, or additional form details for Dikkenberg

Details

We find value on Elijah Dikkenberg (away). The market prices Zachary Adam-Gedge as a strong favorite at 1.30 (implied win ~76.9%), but Adam-Gedge's limited profile shows a 1-3 career record with recent losses on hard courts and very small sample size — indicators of weak form and high uncertainty. With no information showing Dikkenberg is significantly inferior, the market favorite status for Adam-Gedge looks overstated. We estimate the away win probability at 55% (home win 45%), which is materially higher than the market-implied away probability of ~30.8% (1/3.25). At the available away price of 3.25 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.55 * 3.25 - 1 = 0.7875). Given the clear mismatch between our probability estimate and the market price, the away side represents a value bet, albeit with elevated uncertainty due to sparse data.

Key factors

• • Adam-Gedge limited sample (1-3) and recent losses on hard courts
• • Market prices home as heavy favorite despite poor recent form
• • No provided evidence that Elijah Dikkenberg is clearly inferior