Highlights

• • Pavle is the logical favorite given experience and hard-court matches
• • Current market prices leave no positive-expected-value opportunity on either side

Pros

• + Clear favorite with higher match volume and mixed recent results indicating competitive form
• + Underdog price is long relative to implied probability from the opponent’s limited track record

Cons

• - Favorite’s price (1.10) requires >90.9% win chance to be +EV, which we do not assign
• - Underdog’s true win probability appears below the market-implied probability, so 6.25 is insufficient

Details

We compared the quoted moneylines to our win-probability estimates derived from the provided player profiles. Pavle Marinkov is the clear class and experience edge (45 matches, 21-24) and has recent activity on hard courts; Zachary Adam-Gedge has a very small sample (4 matches, 1-3) and limited results on hard. The market heavily favors Pavle at 1.10 (implied 90.9%); based on form, experience and surface data we estimate Pavle's true win probability at ~85%, which still makes the 1.10 price negative EV (EV = 0.85*1.10 - 1 = -0.065). Conversely, the underdog price for Adam-Gedge (6.25, implied ~16.0%) is higher than our estimate for his win chance (~12%), but not high enough to generate value (would need ~8.333 to be +EV). Given both calculations, no side provides positive expected value at the current quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Pavle Marinkov has substantially greater match experience and similar surface history (Hard)
• • Zachary Adam-Gedge has a very small sample size and poor results (1-3), limiting upside
• • Market price for Pavle (1.10) implies an excessively high win probability vs. our conservative estimate