Zachary Adam-Gedge vs Pavle Marinkov

Highlights

• • Marinkov is materially more experienced and battle-tested on hard courts
• • Current price 1.10 implies ~90.9%; our fair estimate is ~93%, giving ~2.3% ROI

Pros

• + Small positive expected value at current market price
• + Clear qualitative edge in experience and match history

Cons

• - EV is low and sensitive to small errors in probability estimate
• - Bookmakers may limit stakes on such short-priced favorites

Details

We view Pavle Marinkov as a clear favorite based on vastly greater match experience (45 matches vs 4) and a more extensive record on hard courts. The market prices Marinkov at 1.10 (implied ~90.9%). Given his consistency and superior track record versus Zachary Adam-Gedge's very limited and mostly losing sample, we estimate Marinkov's true win probability around 93.0%. At the available decimal price of 1.10 this produces a small positive edge. The market contains a modest overround, but the favourite price is still slightly softer than our probability warrants, producing a small positive expected value. Because the margin is slim, this is a low-margin value opportunity rather than a large overlay—sensitivity to our probability estimate is high, so the recommendation depends on our confidence in Pavle's superiority.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Marinkov 45 matches vs Adam-Gedge 4 matches
• • Surface alignment: both have recent play on hard courts, advantage to the more experienced player
• • Market pricing: favourite at 1.10 leaves a small edge if true win probability >= ~0.91