Highlights

• • Market implies Williams ~86.2% chance; our conservative estimate is 80%
• • Needed price for value is ≥1.25; market is 1.16, so we pass

Pros

• + Williams is clearly favored by the market, indicating probability of win is high
• + Short odds reduce variance on outcomes if one wanted a low-return play

Cons

• - Current price does not reflect sufficient edge — negative EV of ~7.2% on a 1-unit stake
• - No available data on form, surface, injuries or H2H increases uncertainty

Details

We have no external scouting or recent-form data, so we use conservative assumptions. The market prices make Zainab Williams a heavy favorite at 1.16 (implied win probability ~86.2%). Conservatively we estimate Williams' true win probability at 80% (0.80) to account for upset risk in lower-tier events and unknown conditions. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 1.25, so the current price of 1.16 offers negative expected value. Calculated EV for backing Williams at 1.16 is 0.80 * 1.16 - 1 = -0.072 (a -7.2% ROI). The away price (4.8) implies ~20.8% market chance; under our assumptions Katja Ivanovska is ~20% likely to win which also yields slightly negative EV at current prices. Given both sides show negative EV versus our conservative probabilities, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Heavy market favorite (1.16) implies ~86.2% win probability
• • No external form, injury, surface, or H2H data available — we use conservative assumptions
• • Required fair price (1.25) is materially above the market price, removing value