Zdenek Kolar vs Nikita Mashtakov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market price for Kolar is too short relative to our estimate of his true win probability on grass; no value exists at the quoted 1.075. We recommend taking no bet given the current odds.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability (93%) materially exceeds our estimate (82%)
- • Insufficient grass-surface evidence in supplied research to justify extreme favoritism
Pros
- + Kolar has a strong overall win record in the supplied profile
- + He is the clear favourite on paper, so risk of outright upset is reduced compared with a 50/50 match
Cons
- - No grass match data provided for Kolar in the research; surface transition risk exists
- - Opponent (Mashtakov) details are missing in the research, adding uncertainty to any projection
Details
We see a very short market price for Zdenek Kolar (1.075, implied ~93.0%). Kolar's available profile shows a strong overall win rate on clay and hard but no recorded grass results in the supplied research, and his recent results appear mixed. Given the lack of grass data and no information about Nikita Mashtakov in the materials provided, we estimate Kolar is the favourite but not at the extreme 93% level implied by the current price. Our estimated true probability for Kolar is 82%, which translates to minimum fair odds of ~1.220. Since the current best-known market price (1.075) is significantly shorter than our required odds, there is no value in betting Kolar at the quoted price and we therefore recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~93% for Kolar which is likely overstated given limited grass data
- • Kolar's supplied record is strong overall but mainly on clay and hard, not grass
- • No information on Mashtakov provided, increasing uncertainty and reducing conviction