Zdenek Kolar vs Nikita Mashtakov

Highlights

• • Bookmakers imply ~93.5% for Kolar at 1.07
• • Our conservative estimate ~70% yields a strongly negative EV (-0.251)

Pros

• + Kolar has a strong overall record in the provided data (~63-30)
• + Experience on clay and hard suggests surface versatility

Cons

• - Market price requires near-certainty that the research does not justify
• - No opponent-specific data provided to refine probability in favor of the favorite

Details

We compared the market price (Zdenek Kolar 1.07 => implied probability ~93.5%) to our assessment of Kolar's true win chances. Kolar's available career numbers show a solid overall win rate (~63 wins in ~93 matches, ~67%), plus recent wins on clay/hard, but the data does not support a near-certain 93% probability. With limited or no information on Nikita Mashtakov in the provided research and the match surface not explicitly confirmed, a conservative estimated true probability of 70% is more defensible. At the current price of 1.07 the expected value (EV = p * odds - 1) is negative (-0.251), so there is no value to back the heavy favorite. To obtain positive EV we would need a price of at least 1.429 given our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~93.5% for Kolar (1.07) which is far above his career win rate (~67%)
• • Provided research documents Kolar as active with wins on clay and hard, but not dominance near 90%+
• • No usable information on opponent Mashtakov or explicit match-surface in the research increases uncertainty