Highlights

• • Implied away probability 48.5% vs our estimate 51%
• • Estimated EV ≈ +0.051 (5.1% ROI) at current price

Pros

• + Market price offers small positive expected value under our conservative estimate
• + No research-provided injuries or negative factors for the away player

Cons

• - Edge is small and based on limited, symmetric data — model sensitivity is high
• - No head-to-head or deeper match-level data in the research to strengthen conviction

Details

Both players present nearly identical profiles in the provided research (10-21 records, similar surfaces and recent results), so no strong qualitative edge is evident. The market prices the away player at 2.06 (implied win probability 1/2.06 = 0.485). We estimate the true win probability for the away player at 0.51 based on parity of form and no detectable disadvantages; that projection implies positive value. EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.51 * 2.06 - 1 = 0.0506 (≈5.1% ROI). Given the small but positive edge and lack of contradictory information (no injuries, no H2H advantage in the research), we recommend the away moneyline at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have effectively identical records and recent form in the provided data (10-21).
• • Both play clay and hard surfaces per the research — no clear surface advantage shown.
• • Market-implied probability for away (48.5%) is below our estimated 51%, creating a small edge.