Highlights

• • Market implied probability for away: ~60.6% (odds 1.65)
• • Break-even odds given our estimate: 1.754 — current 1.65 is below that

Pros

• + Home duo recent form and limited match history suggests they are understrength
• + Market correctly favors away, which aligns with our qualitative read

Cons

• - We lack direct, recent data on Abdusamadov/Bessonov to confidently justify an edge
• - Small sample sizes for the home players mean higher variance in our probability estimate

Details

We view the market-priced away side (1.65) as favored by the public (implied probability ~60.6%). The available player data on the home pairing (Zhe Li / Fanming Meng) shows limited match activity and predominantly poor recent form on hard courts, which justifies some edge toward the away team. However, our independent estimated win probability for the away side is ~57.0% — lower than the market-implied 60.6% — leaving a negative expected value at the current price. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.57 * 1.65 - 1 = -0.0595 (≈ -5.95% ROI). To be profitable we would need decimal odds >= 1.754 given our probability estimate. Given the small sample sizes, incomplete opponent data, and modest gap between our view and the market, we prefer to pass rather than take a negative-EV wager.

Key factors

• • Home pairing shows limited activity and poor recent results on hard courts
• • Market implies away win probability (~60.6%) which exceeds our estimated probability (57%)
• • Small sample sizes and lack of data on the away pairing increase uncertainty