Highlights

• • Market implies ~80% for the favorite despite symmetrical records
• • Underdog price (3.82) exceeds our required threshold (3.333) for a positive EV

Pros

• + Strong price vs. our conservative win-probability estimate
• + No injury or form data in the research that clearly favors the favorite

Cons

• - Limited and duplicated research data reduces confidence in probability estimates
• - Underdog pick still relies on a subjective gap versus market pricing

Details

We judge the market (Joanna Garland 1.25) to overstate the favorite given the available player data. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience (hard and clay) with no clear injury or form advantage for Garland in the provided research. The market implies ~80% win probability for Garland, which is inconsistent with the symmetric performance metrics. We estimate Zhibek Kulambayeva has roughly a 30% chance to win; at the current decimal price of 3.82 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 3.82 - 1 = +0.146). We therefore recommend the home underdog only because the price offers value versus our estimated true probability.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical win-loss records (10-21) in the provided profiles
• • Surface experience is similar (hard and clay) with no explicit advantage shown
• • Market-priced favorite (1.25) implies ~80% win probability which appears overstated given the data