Highlights

• • Market favors Jiayu Xu at 1.73 but our estimate gives only a slight edge to Xu (≈53%).
• • Home price 2.00 would need to be ≥2.128 to offer positive expected value given our 47% estimate.

Pros

• + Both players are well-profiled in the research so probabilities can be bounded conservatively.
• + Current prices are stable and widely available, making thresholds for value clear.

Cons

• - Limited and similar data for both players makes any edge small and uncertain.
• - No head-to-head, injury, or surface advantage information in the provided sources to shift probabilities materially.

Details

We find no value on either side given the information available. Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form, so we estimate a slight edge for the away player but not enough to justify the market favorite price. The market implies probabilities of 50.0% for Zhirui Liu (2.00) and 57.8% for Jiayu Xu (1.73). Our estimated true probability for the better candidate (home, Zhirui Liu) is 47.0%, which yields an expected return of 0.47*2.00 - 1 = -0.06 (negative). To be profitable on Liu at our estimate we would need odds ≥ 2.128; for Xu (our estimated probability 53.0%) we would need odds ≥ 1.887. Current prices (2.00 and 1.73) are both shorter than the required break-even prices given our probability estimates, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and match counts (both 10-21 over 31 matches)
• • Recent form shows losses and no clear momentum advantage for either player
• • No clear surface or head-to-head advantage available in the provided research