Highlights

• • Normalized home win probability: ~56.1%
• • Current home price (1.66) implies a negative EV (~-6.9%) versus our estimate

Pros

• + Conservative, market-normalized approach avoids overreading thin information
• + Clear threshold (min required odds 1.783) if better prices become available

Cons

• - No on-court, injury, surface, or H2H data available — model may miss real edges
• - If we had private or recent form information the true probability could differ materially

Details

We have no external scouting, injury, surface or H2H data, so we use the market prices and a conservative normalization to remove the bookmaker vig. Implied probabilities from the quoted decimals are: Home 1.66 -> 60.24%, Away 2.12 -> 47.17% (sum 107.41%). After normalizing for vig the best estimate of true win probability for the home player is ~56.11%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.783. Using the current home price (1.66) yields a negative expected return (EV ≈ -0.069 per unit). The away side similarly shows no positive edge when accounting for the vig. With no additional information to confidently move our true-probability estimate away from the market-neutral normalization, neither side offers value, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data on form, surface preference, injuries, or H2H — we use market-normalized probabilities
• • Market contains typical vig; normalized home win probability ≈ 56.11%
• • At current prices (home 1.66, away 2.12) neither side shows positive expected value