Zoe Billon vs Liv Boulard
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: at a conservative true win probability of 56% for the home player, the current home price (1.66) yields negative EV and the away side similarly lacks justification for >47% win probability.
Highlights
- • Market-normalized home win ≈56%
- • Break-even odds for our estimate ≈1.786 (current 1.66 is too low)
Pros
- + Market favors the home player, indicating consensus edge but not enough for +EV
- + Odds are widely available and standard (no outlier quote)
Cons
- - Current prices do not offer positive expected value under conservative assumptions
- - No external info (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify deviating from market
Details
With no external data available we conservatively base our view on the market prices (Home 1.66, Away 2.12) and a neutral adjustment. Market-implied probabilities (with vig) normalize to roughly Home 56.1% / Away 43.9%. We estimate the home win probability at 56.0% (0.56) as a cautious reflection of the market rather than an edge. At that probability the break-even decimal odds are 1 / 0.56 = 1.786, which is meaningfully higher than the current home price of 1.66, producing negative expected value: EV_home = 0.56 * 1.66 - 1 = -0.0704 (≈ -7.0% ROI). The away side would require a win probability > 47.17% to be profitable at the current 2.12 price; our neutral estimate for the away side (~44%) is below that threshold. Given the lack of independent positive information (surface advantage, form, injuries, h2h) to justify a model probability exceeding the market break-even thresholds, neither side offers value at current prices.
Key factors
- • No independent data available; using conservative market-normalized baseline
- • Home implied probability ~56% vs our conservative estimate 56% (no edge)
- • Away would need >47.17% chance to be +EV at 2.12, which we cannot justify