Highlights

• • Market implies huge favoritism for away (1.211) not supported by supplied profiles
• • Home at 4.01 is priced well above our fair odds (≈2.083)

Pros

• + Large gap between our estimated true probability and the market price creates strong positive EV
• + No data in the research supporting the market’s heavy favorite selection

Cons

• - Research is limited and truncated — there may be external info not provided that justifies the market price
• - High EV here is driven by lack of differentiating data; real-world uncertainty remains significant

Details

The market heavily favors Kristina Kroitor at 1.211 (implied ~82.6%) despite the provided profiles showing nearly identical records (both 10-21) and no distinguishing form, surface, injury or H2H information in the research. With no evidence in the supplied data to justify such a large edge for the away player, we assign a near-even but slightly underdog-favored estimate to Zoziya Kardava. Comparing our estimated true probability for the home player (48%) to the market decimal 4.01 (implied 24.99%) shows a large discrepancy and clear value on the home moneyline. Our EV calculation uses the quoted current home odds (4.01).

Key factors

• • Both players show identical basic profiles and win-loss records in the provided research (10-21), giving no reason to justify a lopsided market price
• • Current market odds imply an 82.6% win probability for the away player, which is inconsistent with the supplied data
• • No injury, form, surface advantage or H2H data in the research to materially favor the away player