Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see modest value on Piros at 1.488 because our conservative true-win estimate (69.0%) is slightly higher than the market-implied probability, producing a small positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market price implies 67.2% for Piros; we estimate 69.0%
- • Small positive EV of ~2.7% at current odds
Pros
- + Stronger win-rate in the provided career sample
- + Recent documented wins give confidence in form
Cons
- - Limited surface/head-to-head detail in the research increases uncertainty
- - EV is small — outcome variance in a single tennis match is high
Details
We compare the market price (Piros 1.488 -> implied 67.2%) to our assessment. Piros has a stronger overall win rate in the provided data (46-21 ≈ 68.7%) versus Neumayer (48-30 ≈ 61.5%) and shows slightly better recent results (a US Open win in the sample). Neither player shows a clear surface advantage in the provided research, but the raw win-rate and the recent US Open success tilt the probability toward Piros. We estimate Piros' true win probability at 69.0%, which is modestly above the market-implied 67.2%; at the current decimal price (1.488) that yields a small positive EV. We account for a bookmaker margin when comparing implied and estimated probabilities and remain conservative in our probability assignment given limited head-to-head and surface-specific detail.
Key factors
- • Piros has a higher overall win rate in the provided sample (46-21 ≈ 68.7%)
- • Recent form favors Piros with at least one documented US Open win in the samples
- • Market-implied probability (67.2%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (69.0%)