Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Hobgarski (1.20) despite near-identical profiles
• • Underdog Pawlikowska priced at 4.01 offers significant value under our 40% estimate

Pros

• + Strong positive expected value at current market price
• + Research shows both players are comparable, supporting a closer true probability than market implies

Cons

• - Limited data and no H2H or ranking details in the provided research increase uncertainty
• - Small-sample season records and recent poor form for both players make outcome variance high

Details

We find clear value on the home underdog, Zuzanna Pawlikowska. The market prices Katharina Hobgarski at 1.20 (≈83.3% implied) and Pawlikowska at 4.01 (≈24.9% implied). The provided profiles show nearly identical records (both 10-21), the same recent form issues, and both have experience on the same surfaces (hard and clay). There is no injury or H2H information to justify an 83% win probability for Hobgarski. Given the symmetry in the research, we estimate a much closer true probability split and assign Pawlikowska a 40% chance to win. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 2.50, so the current 4.01 offers substantial value (EV = 0.40*4.01 - 1 = +0.604 per unit). We therefore recommend backing Pawlikowska because the market appears to be overstating Hobgarski's chances based on the limited data available.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical season records (10-21) and similar surface experience
• • Market-implied probability for the away favorite (83%) is inconsistent with the available performance data
• • No injury or head-to-head information provided to justify a large gap in win expectancy