Highlights

• • Conservative true win probability for mCon: 62%
• • Required fair odds for mCon: 1.613 vs offered 1.478 (negative EV)

Pros

• + Market correctly identifies mCon as favorite, reducing variance of our conservative estimate
• + Clear numerical mismatch shows both sides lack value at current lines

Cons

• - No match-specific data available (rosters, form, H2H, patch impacts)
• - Esports outcomes can be volatile; conservative priors may still be off materially

Details

We have no external match data beyond the moneyline, so we adopt conservative assumptions. The market prices mCon as the clear favorite (home 1.478 -> implied ~67.6%), but the book includes a substantial margin. Conservatively we estimate mCon's true win probability at 62% (0.62) and Senshi at 38% (0.38). At our estimate, the minimum fair decimal for mCon is 1.613, while the offered 1.478 is too short and yields negative expected value. The away line at 2.37 is also slightly short against our 38% estimate. Because neither side shows positive EV at current widely available moneylines, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external research available — we use conservative priors
• • Bookmaker implied probabilities show a sizable overround
• • Both sides produce negative EV against our conservative win estimates