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Brunei vs Lebanon play on 2025-11-18 12:15 in the Afc Asian Cup Qualifiers (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 3028.0%. Suggested side: Lebanon. Moneyline — Home: 76 (1.3%), Away: 34 (2.9%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Lebanon. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 76, Away: 34. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Lebanon moneyline given current prices.
We find clear value on Lebanon at the quoted decimal 34.0. Research shows Lebanon as heavy favorites: they have kept clean sheets across four qualifying matches, beat Brunei 5-0 in the recent meeting, and Brunei arrive on poor form (three losses in four, including a 9-0 defeat). Even allowing for Brunei's home advantage, the qualitative picture points to Lebanon being overwhelmingly likely to win. The market price (34.0, implied ~2.9%) is inconsistent with on-field evidence; we estimate Lebanon's true win probability far higher, which produces a very large positive expected value at the current price.
Summary: Lebanon represents clear value versus the quoted 34.0 price given their defensive form, recent 5-0 H2H win, and Brunei's heavy losses; we estimate Lebanon win probability at 92%, producing a very large positive EV.