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Bulgaria vs Georgia play on 2025-11-18 19:45 in the WC Qualification, UEFA (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 55.0%. Suggested side: Bulgaria. Moneyline — Home: 6.2 (16.1%), Away: 1.5 (66.7%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Bulgaria. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 6.2, Away: 1.5. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Bulgaria moneyline given current prices.
We assess value on Bulgaria (home) because the market strongly favors Georgia at 1.50 (implied ~66.7%) while available research shows mixed H2H results and notes Georgia has struggled in this WC qualification cycle. The market price for Bulgaria at 6.20 (implied ~16.1%) appears to over-penalize Bulgaria — head-to-head sources show Bulgaria has taken wins in recent meetings and multiple previews (xG/Forebet/FootyStats summaries) indicate a competitive matchup rather than a blowout. We estimate Bulgaria's true win probability at 25% (0.25). At that probability the fair decimal odds are 4.000, which is substantially shorter than the quoted 6.20, producing positive expected value. By contrast, Georgia at 1.50 implies a 66.7% chance; our view of their form and H2H does not justify such a high win probability, so we do not see value backing Georgia at current prices.
Summary: We find value on Bulgaria at 6.20 because our estimated win probability (25%) implies fair odds of 4.00 — the market price offers a sizeable margin over that estimate, yielding positive EV.