SpainVSTurkiye

Summary: Turkiye at 11.0 offers value relative to our estimated 12% win probability; the market price exceeds the minimum fair odds, producing +32% EV on a 1-unit stake.

Key claims

• • Market odds — home: 1.24, away: 11.0.
• • Turkiye at 11.0 offers value relative to our estimated 12% win probability; the market price exceeds the minimum fair odds, producing +32% EV on a 1-unit stake.
• • We compare the market-implied probability for a Turkiye upset (1/11.0 = 9.09%) to our assessed true probability.
• • The research shows Turkiye in strong form in recent fixtures (multiple wins and high scoring in WCQ).
• • Spain — though clear favorite — has had a more mixed short-term record (not fully dominant in the last five per previews).
• • We conservatively estimate Turkiye’s true probability at 12.0% (0.12).
• • At the available decimal price 11.0, this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.12*11 - 1 = +0.32 or +32% ROI on a 1-unit stake).
• • The minimum fair decimal odds given our probability would be 8.333; the market is offering 11.0, which represents value versus our model.
• • We therefore recommend the away side as a value play given the current price, while acknowledging the low absolute probability and the influence of Spain’s home strength.
• • Market implies ~9.1% for a Turkey win; we estimate ~12%
• • Minimum fair odds per our model = 8.333; current 11.0 is significantly higher