PanamaVSEl Salvador

Who will win Panama vs El Salvador?

Our lean: El Salvador. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for Panama vs El Salvador?

Home: 1.27, Away: 11. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for Panama vs El Salvador?

Best bet: El Salvador moneyline given current prices.

Details

The market prices Panama at 1.27 ( implied ~78.7% ) and El Salvador at 11.0 ( implied ~9.1% ). Our assessment of form and H2H shows Panama as clear favorite but not to the degree the book implies; previous meetings and recent previews indicate competitive, low-scoring games where narrow margins are common. Given Panama's home advantage the favorite probability is high, but an upset probability for El Salvador in a single qualifier match is materially above 9%. We estimate El Salvador's true-win probability at 12%, which makes the available 11.0 decimal price mispriced. At p=0.12 the expected value is 0.12*11.0 - 1 = +0.32 (32% ROI). By contrast, Panama would need an implied probability >78.74% (decimal <1.27) for a positive EV — we do not believe Panama's win chance is that extreme. Therefore we recommend backing El Salvador at current prices as a value play.