CB San Pablo BurgosVSUCAM Murcia

Who will win CB San Pablo Burgos vs UCAM Murcia?

Our lean: CB San Pablo Burgos. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for CB San Pablo Burgos vs UCAM Murcia?

Home: 3.6, Away: 1.35. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for CB San Pablo Burgos vs UCAM Murcia?

Best bet: CB San Pablo Burgos moneyline given current prices.

Details

We see a market price that heavily favours UCAM Murcia (away 1.35 implied win probability ~74.1%) while one forecasting source gives Murcia 70%. Head-to-head and historical notes in the provided research show Burgos with a favorable H2H record and home advantage, which suggests the market may be slightly overstating Murcia's chance. Balancing the strong model prediction for Murcia (70%) against Burgos' H2H/home edge, we estimate Burgos' true win probability around 32%. At that probability the required fair decimal price is 3.125; the current home moneyline is 3.6, producing positive expected value. Calculations: estimated_true_probability = 0.32, min_required_decimal_odds = 1/0.32 = 3.125, expected_value = 0.32 * 3.6 - 1 = 0.152 (15.2% ROI). We use the widely-available current home price 3.6 for the EV calculation because it is materially higher than our fair threshold and therefore offers value. We note uncertainty in form/injuries from the research and recommend treating this as a medium-risk value play rather than a certainty.