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Pallacanestro Reggiana vs Pallacanestro Brescia play on 2025-12-06 19:30 in the Serie A (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 20.4%. Suggested side: Pallacanestro Brescia. Moneyline — Home: 2.38 (42.0%), Away: 1.72 (58.1%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Pallacanestro Brescia. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.38, Away: 1.72. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Pallacanestro Brescia moneyline given current prices.
We see value backing Pallacanestro Brescia (away). An objective model in the research (Forebet) assigns Brescia ~75% win probability; season-level aggregates also show Brescia much stronger this campaign (16 wins vs Reggiana 5, higher PPG). The market price of 1.72 implies an implied probability of 1/1.72 = 58.1%, which is materially lower than our conservative estimated true probability of 70%. Using our estimate, the bet yields positive expected value: EV = 0.70 * 1.72 - 1 = +0.204 (20.4% ROI). H2H is mixed historically, but the broader form and predictive model both lean to Brescia, and we found no research showing injuries or home-court factors large enough to overturn that edge. Therefore at the available price (1.72) the away side represents a clear value opportunity.
Summary: Brescia appears overpriced by the market: we estimate a ~70% win chance while the 1.72 price implies ~58% — this gap produces ~20% edge.