FC SeoulVSChengdu Rongcheng

Who will win FC Seoul vs Chengdu Rongcheng?

Our lean: Chengdu Rongcheng. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for FC Seoul vs Chengdu Rongcheng?

Home: 1.833, Away: 3.88. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for FC Seoul vs Chengdu Rongcheng?

Best bet: Chengdu Rongcheng moneyline given current prices.

Details

The market prices FC Seoul at 1.833 (implied win probability ~54.6%) and Chengdu Rongcheng at 4.10 (implied ~24.4%). A recent data-driven model explicitly gives FC Seoul only a 36% chance to win, and multiple match notes show Chengdu in better recent form while Seoul are higher in the group table. We reconcile those signals by applying a conservative true probability for Chengdu of 34%: this adjusts for Seoul's home advantage and higher standing but gives weight to Chengdu's superior recent form and the model that underweights a Seoul win. At 34% true probability the fair decimal price is ~2.941; the available 4.10 quote for Chengdu therefore represents clear value. Calculations: implied away break-even p = 1/4.10 = 0.2439; our p = 0.34 -> EV = 0.34*4.10 - 1 = +0.394 (39.4% ROI on a single unit). We thus recommend betting Chengdu only because expected_value > 0 at the current quoted price.