Loading...
Preparing your betting insights...
Preparing your betting insights...
FC Seoul vs Chengdu Rongcheng play on 2025-11-04 10:00 in the AFC Champions League Elite (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 39.4%. Suggested side: Chengdu Rongcheng. Moneyline — Home: 1.833 (54.6%), Away: 3.88 (25.8%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Chengdu Rongcheng. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.833, Away: 3.88. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Chengdu Rongcheng moneyline given current prices.
The market prices FC Seoul at 1.833 (implied win probability ~54.6%) and Chengdu Rongcheng at 4.10 (implied ~24.4%). A recent data-driven model explicitly gives FC Seoul only a 36% chance to win, and multiple match notes show Chengdu in better recent form while Seoul are higher in the group table. We reconcile those signals by applying a conservative true probability for Chengdu of 34%: this adjusts for Seoul's home advantage and higher standing but gives weight to Chengdu's superior recent form and the model that underweights a Seoul win. At 34% true probability the fair decimal price is ~2.941; the available 4.10 quote for Chengdu therefore represents clear value. Calculations: implied away break-even p = 1/4.10 = 0.2439; our p = 0.34 -> EV = 0.34*4.10 - 1 = +0.394 (39.4% ROI on a single unit). We thus recommend betting Chengdu only because expected_value > 0 at the current quoted price.
Summary: Chengdu Rongcheng at 4.10 offers value versus an overpriced FC Seoul market line; using a conservative 34% true win probability yields ~39% ROI at the quoted price.