LiverpoolVSBrighton

Who will win Liverpool vs Brighton?

Our lean: Liverpool. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for Liverpool vs Brighton?

Home: 3.39, Away: 2.01. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Brighton?

Best bet: Liverpool moneyline given current prices.

Details

We find value on Liverpool (home) because the market prices Brighton at ~49.8% implied win probability (decimal 2.01) while Liverpool is available at a roughly 29.5% implied chance (decimal 3.39). Our read of the supplied research — multiple sources showing Liverpool’s recent H2H edge (several reports of Liverpool winning the majority of recent meetings and scoring strongly head-to-head), plus commentary indicating Brighton are in poor WSL form — supports a materially higher true win probability for Liverpool than the market-implied 29.5%. We conservatively estimate Liverpool’s true win probability at 40.0%, which implies required decimal odds of 2.50; the current quote of 3.39 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.40 * 3.39 - 1 = 0.356 (35.6% ROI). We acknowledge some conflicting H2H notes in the research, so we use a conservative uplift versus the market rather than an extreme adjustment.