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Nagano Parceiro vs Omiya Ardija Ventus play on 2025-11-09 05:00 in the Japan - Women Empowerment League (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 53.0%. Suggested side: Nagano Parceiro. Moneyline — Home: 4.25 (23.5%), Away: 1.775 (56.3%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Nagano Parceiro. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 4.25, Away: 1.775. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Nagano Parceiro moneyline given current prices.
We see clear value backing Nagano Parceiro at the available moneyline (4.25). The market-implied probability for a Nagano win is only 23.5%, but the head-to-head background and historical performance favor Nagano: across prior meetings Nagano has won roughly half or more of encounters (6–7 wins in ~12 meetings) and historically posts higher goals-per-game and points-per-game vs Omiya. While Nagano’s very recent run shows no wins in their last five, that appears to be a short-term form dip; Omiya’s form is described as mixed rather than dominant. Balancing long-term H2H advantage, Nagano’s better historical offensive numbers, and the fact that recent poor results could be regression-prone, we estimate Nagano’s true win probability materially above the market price (we estimate ~36%). At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.78, making the offered 4.25 notably overpriced and producing a positive expected value. We note uncertainty from Nagano’s recent winless spell and any unreported injuries or lineup changes could reduce value, so this is a value play that relies on H2H/sample-based reversion rather than current-form momentum.
Summary: We find value on Nagano Parceiro at 4.25 because their historical H2H edge and superior underlying numbers suggest a win probability (~36%) well above the market-implied 23.5%, producing an attractive positive EV.