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SK Sturm Graz vs FC RB Salzburg play on 2025-11-09 16:00 in the Bundesliga (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 20.6%. Suggested side: FC RB Salzburg. Moneyline — Home: 2.42 (41.3%), Away: 2.7 (37.0%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: FC RB Salzburg. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.42, Away: 2.7. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: FC RB Salzburg moneyline given current prices.
We believe RB Salzburg represents value at the current moneyline. Historical H2H and aggregate records in the research show Salzburg as the stronger side overall, while recent domestic form for Sturm Graz at home is mixed across sources. Balancing Salzburg's clear historical edge and recent positive outcomes against the home-team noise, we estimate Salzburg's true win probability around 44%. The market price of 2.74 implies a 36.5% win probability, so at 2.74 the bet offers positive expected value (EV = 0.44 * 2.74 - 1 ≈ 0.206). We prefer Salzburg rather than Sturm Graz (home 2.42) because our model assigns a lower probability to a home upset (≈36%), which does not justify the home odds (EV negative).
Summary: We find value backing RB Salzburg at 2.74 — our 44% win estimate gives positive EV (~0.206 per unit staked) compared with the market-implied ~36.5%.