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TCU vs Notre Dame play on 2025-12-06 01:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 114.2%. Suggested side: Notre Dame. Moneyline — Home: 1.318 (75.9%), Away: 3.57 (28.0%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Notre Dame. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.318, Away: 3.57. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Notre Dame moneyline given current prices.
We find strong value on Notre Dame (away) because the research consensus (expert previews, computer projection, and H2H) favors Notre Dame by a clear margin, while the market moneyline massively favors home TCU. Fox Sports’ computer predicts Notre Dame by ~6 points and multiple previews list Notre Dame as the favorite with no key injuries reported for either side. Given Notre Dame's edge in perimeter offense/defense and a reported 3-1 H2H lead, we estimate Notre Dame's true win probability at ~60%. The current away moneyline 3.57 implies ~28.0% probability—well below our estimate—creating a large positive expected value (EV = p * odds - 1). The discrepancy looks like a market misprice (or data mismatch), so we recommend backing Notre Dame at current prices but classify this as a high-risk/value situation due to the unusual market pricing.
Summary: Research consensus and model projections favor Notre Dame; current moneyline (3.57) is a clear misprice versus our ~60% estimate, presenting strong value but with elevated risk given the market discrepancy.