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UC Irvine Anteaters vs New Mexico State Aggies play on 2025-11-26 01:30 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 24.1%. Suggested side: New Mexico State Aggies. Moneyline — Home: 1.7 (58.8%), Away: 2.14 (46.7%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: New Mexico State Aggies. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.7, Away: 2.14. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: New Mexico State Aggies moneyline given current prices.
We project New Mexico State has the edge in this neutral-site early-season matchup. Research shows New Mexico State undefeated in early play while UC Irvine has been inconsistent (roughly 3-3 in referenced reports). The market currently prices the Aggies at 2.14 (implied win probability ~46.7%) while our estimated true win probability for New Mexico State is 58%. That gap (≈11 percentage points) produces positive expected value: EV = 0.58 * 2.14 - 1 ≈ +0.241. UC Irvine’s strong assist numbers indicate good team play, but their record and form through the early slate reduce our confidence in them overcoming New Mexico State on a neutral floor. Given the available moneyline, we find value on New Mexico State.
Summary: We find value on New Mexico State at 2.14 — the market underprices the Aggies relative to our 58% win probability on a neutral floor.