Anadolu Efes SKVSManisa

Who will win Anadolu Efes SK vs Manisa?

Our lean: Manisa. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for Anadolu Efes SK vs Manisa?

Home: 1.02, Away: 7.68. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for Anadolu Efes SK vs Manisa?

Best bet: Manisa moneyline given current prices.

Details

The market prices Anadolu Efes at 1.02 (implied ~98%) and Manisa at 7.68 (implied ~13%). That home price is extremely short and unlikely to reflect true uncertainty. An independent algorithmic model referenced in the research put Efes around a 69% win probability (implying Manisa ~31%), while recent H2H and form data strongly favor Efes but do not justify a near-certain 98% probability. Conservatively we estimate Manisa's chance closer to 20% — lower than the algorithmic underdog estimate but substantially higher than the book's implied 13%. At our estimate (p=0.20) the away-line at 7.68 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.536 per 1 unit staked). Even if Manisa's true chance were somewhat lower (down to ~13.1%) the market would be fairly priced; above that threshold it becomes profitable. Given the extreme market skew toward Efes and reasonable non-zero upset chances for the away side, the away price offers value.