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Anadolu Efes SK vs Manisa play on 2025-11-03 16:00 in the Super Lig (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our modelβs edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 53.6%. Suggested side: Manisa. Moneyline β Home: 1.02 (98.0%), Away: 7.68 (13.0%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Manisa. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.02, Away: 7.68. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Manisa moneyline given current prices.
The market prices Anadolu Efes at 1.02 (implied ~98%) and Manisa at 7.68 (implied ~13%). That home price is extremely short and unlikely to reflect true uncertainty. An independent algorithmic model referenced in the research put Efes around a 69% win probability (implying Manisa ~31%), while recent H2H and form data strongly favor Efes but do not justify a near-certain 98% probability. Conservatively we estimate Manisa's chance closer to 20% β lower than the algorithmic underdog estimate but substantially higher than the book's implied 13%. At our estimate (p=0.20) the away-line at 7.68 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.536 per 1 unit staked). Even if Manisa's true chance were somewhat lower (down to ~13.1%) the market would be fairly priced; above that threshold it becomes profitable. Given the extreme market skew toward Efes and reasonable non-zero upset chances for the away side, the away price offers value.
Summary: Market over-prices Anadolu Efes; at a conservative 20% win probability for Manisa the away moneyline 7.68 offers clear positive EV (β+0.536).