Loading...
Preparing your betting insights...
Loading...
Preparing your betting insights...
Preparing your betting insights...
Preparing your betting insights...
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks play on 2025-11-04 01:00 in the NBA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 18.8%. Suggested side: Dallas Mavericks. Moneyline — Home: 1.149 (87.0%), Away: 5.94 (16.8%).
The premier men’s professional basketball league in North America with 30 teams.
82-game regular season, Play-In Tournament, then best-of-7 playoff series to the Finals.
Official: https://www.nba.com · Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association
Our lean: Dallas Mavericks. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.149, Away: 5.94. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Dallas Mavericks moneyline given current prices.
The market is pricing Houston as an overwhelming favorite (decimal 1.149 -> implied ~87%) while Dallas is available at 5.94 (~16.8% implied). Research shows mixed signals: Dallas has strong recent historical SU results vs Houston (11-5 in last 16), while Houston has shown better ATS form recently and is at home. Injury reporting in the research is inconsistent (both sides listed key outs), which increases uncertainty and suggests the market may be over-reacting in favor of the home team. We conservatively estimate Dallas' true win probability at 20% (0.20). At the current away moneyline 5.94 this produces positive expected value: EV = 0.20 * 5.94 - 1 = 0.188 (18.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal odds for this probability is 5.000; the current 5.94 is sufficiently higher to justify a value play on the Mavericks given historical H2H, relative form, and the injury noise reducing confidence in the heavy favorite pricing.
Summary: We find value on the Mavericks at 5.94: our conservative 20% win estimate implies ~18.8% ROI vs the current price and requires odds ≥5.000 to be profitable.