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Oregon State Beavers vs North Dakota State Bison play on 2025-11-04 02:30 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our modelβs edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 24.3%. Suggested side: North Dakota State Bison. Moneyline β Home: 1.27 (78.7%), Away: 3.55 (28.2%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: North Dakota State Bison. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.27, Away: 3.55. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: North Dakota State Bison moneyline given current prices.
We see the market prices Oregon State very heavily (home ML 1.27 implied β78.7%) while North Dakota State is available at 3.55 (implied β28.2%). After reviewing the available previews and matchup material, we judge the true upset probability for North Dakota State to be notably higher than the market-implied 28% because early-season form and matchup metrics in the previews indicate a closer contest than the short home price implies. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 35% for the away win, the required fair decimal price is 2.857 (1 / 0.35). The current away price of 3.55 exceeds that threshold, producing positive expected value: EV = 0.35 * 3.55 - 1 = +0.2425 (β+24.3% ROI). The market overstates Oregon State's certainty and presents a clear value opportunity on the Bison at available prices. We used the quoted current away ML 3.55 for the EV calculation.
Summary: We identify value on North Dakota State at 3.55 β our model estimates a 35% upset probability, generating about +24% ROI versus the current price.