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Colorado State vs Incarnate Word play on 2025-11-04 02:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 36.4%. Suggested side: Incarnate Word. Moneyline — Home: 1.11 (90.1%), Away: 6.82 (14.7%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Incarnate Word. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.11, Away: 6.82. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Incarnate Word moneyline given current prices.
We see a clear market gap: the posted moneyline for Incarnate Word (6.82 decimal, implied 14.7%) understates their recent form and upset potential. Research notes Incarnate Word has been strong ATS (8-2 in last 10) and has posted solid SU results recently, indicating they can cover and win more often than a 14.7% chance suggests. Colorado State is the heavy home favorite (1.11) which compresses the underdog payout, but early-season college games can carry more variance and matchup-driven upsets. We estimate Incarnate Word's true probability of winning at about 20% based on their form, ATS trends, and matchup previews — materially higher than the market's ~14.7% — producing positive expected value at the available 6.82 price. Given that threshold, the minimum fair decimal price for this estimate is 5.000, well below the current 6.82, so the away moneyline appears to offer value.
Summary: We find value on Incarnate Word at 6.82: we estimate a ~20% upset chance which makes the away moneyline +EV vs the market-implied ~14.7%.