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LA Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder play on 2025-11-05 04:00 in the NBA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 21.0%. Suggested side: LA Clippers. Moneyline — Home: 2.88 (34.7%), Away: 1.48 (67.6%).
The premier men’s professional basketball league in North America with 30 teams.
82-game regular season, Play-In Tournament, then best-of-7 playoff series to the Finals.
Official: https://www.nba.com · Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association
Our lean: LA Clippers. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.88, Away: 1.48. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: LA Clippers moneyline given current prices.
The market prices the Thunder as clear favorites at 1.48 (implied 67.6%) while the Clippers are long at 2.88 (implied 34.7%). Our assessment adjusts for key injuries reported to Oklahoma City — notably Holmgren listed with a back injury plus additional knee/groin concerns listed — which materially reduce OKC's interior defense and depth. The Clippers are at home (Intuit Dome) with superior spacing and defensive schemes noted in previews; their recent form is decent (3-2), even if ATS trends are poor. Combining the injury impact to OKC and the Clippers’ matchup advantages/home floor, we estimate the Clippers’ true win probability around 42%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.381; the market 2.88 therefore offers positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.21 per unit). The edge is primarily from market under-adjustment for Thunder injuries and Clippers’ matchup/home-court factors, though uncertainty remains around injury designations and line movement.
Summary: We find value on the LA Clippers at 2.88: after accounting for reported Thunder injuries and Clippers’ home/matchup advantages, the Clippers’ win probability looks closer to 42%, making the 2.88 price +EV.