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Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns play on 2025-11-05 03:10 in the NBA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 41.9%. Suggested side: Phoenix Suns. Moneyline — Home: 1.211 (82.6%), Away: 4.73 (21.1%).
The premier men’s professional basketball league in North America with 30 teams.
82-game regular season, Play-In Tournament, then best-of-7 playoff series to the Finals.
Official: https://www.nba.com · Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association
Our lean: Phoenix Suns. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.211, Away: 4.73. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Phoenix Suns moneyline given current prices.
We see clear value on the Phoenix Suns moneyline at the quoted price (4.73). The market-implied Phoenix win probability is only ~21%, while our read of the matchup — Warriors at home but thin on depth with De'Anthony Melton out, inconsistent Warriors form (2-3 last 5), and Phoenix still carrying offensive firepower from Devin Booker — suggests Phoenix's true chance is materially higher. Conservatively we place Phoenix's win probability at 30% (0.30). At that probability the fair decimal price is ~3.333; the current 4.73 is significantly longer, producing positive expected value. Even allowing for Phoenix's road slide and some day-to-day injuries, the gap between our 30% estimate and the market's ~21% implies a profitable long-term edge if prices hold.
Summary: We recommend the Suns moneyline at 4.73 — we estimate a ~30% win probability vs. the market's ~21%, yielding ~0.419 EV per unit staked.