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Evansville Purple Aces vs Akron Zips play on 2025-11-24 01:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 16.0%. Suggested side: Evansville Purple Aces. Moneyline — Home: 5.8 (17.2%), Away: 1.1 (90.9%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Evansville Purple Aces. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 5.8, Away: 1.1. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Evansville Purple Aces moneyline given current prices.
We compare the market-implied probabilities to a realistic win estimate. The book market prices Akron at 1.1 (implied win ~90.9%) and Evansville at 5.8 (implied win ~17.24%). The research shows Akron is 4-1 to start non-conference and has positive ATS form, but there is nothing in the data to justify a >90% chance of winning outright. Evansville has some home-quarter dominance in recent home games and the matchup notes and situational trends suggest Akron is good but not invincible. We estimate Evansville's true win probability at 20% (0.20), higher than the market-implied 17.2%, which creates value on the Evansville moneyline at the available 5.8 price. Calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.20 * 5.8 - 1 = 0.16 (16% ROI). We therefore recommend the Evansville moneyline only because expected_value > 0 at the current price; if the price drops below ~5.0 (our minimum fair odds), value disappears.
Summary: We find value on the Evansville moneyline at 5.8 because we estimate their true win probability near 20%, producing ~16% positive EV; the market price would need to drop below ~5.0 to eliminate value.