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Illinois State Redbirds vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers play on 2025-11-23 22:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 47.0%. Suggested side: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Moneyline — Home: 1.15 (87.0%), Away: 4.9 (20.4%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.15, Away: 4.9. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers moneyline given current prices.
We see the market moneyline strongly favors Illinois State (decimal 1.15, implied ~87%) while Coastal Carolina is priced at 4.90 (implied ~20%). Given the research shows both teams have very similar early-season records (around 3-2 / 3-1), no head-to-head history, and no reported injuries or other clear edges for Illinois State in the sources, we judge the market is overstating the home advantage. Conservatively estimating Coastal Carolina's true win probability at 30% (0.30) implies the fair price should be ~3.333. At the widely-available current price of 4.90 there is value on Coastal: EV = 0.30 * 4.90 - 1 = +0.47 (47% ROI per 1 unit stake). We therefore recommend the away moneyline only because expected_value > 0 at the quoted odds; if the price drops below ~3.333 the value disappears.
Summary: We find value on Coastal Carolina at 4.90 because the market overpricing of Illinois State makes the away side attractive; fair odds are roughly 3.333 based on our 30% win estimate.