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Kansas City Roos vs Iona Gaels play on 2025-11-11 18:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 16.6%. Suggested side: Kansas City Roos. Moneyline — Home: 2.59 (38.6%), Away: 1.6 (62.5%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Kansas City Roos. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.59, Away: 1.6. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Kansas City Roos moneyline given current prices.
We see the market prices Iona as a clear favorite (away moneyline 1.60, implied ~62.5%) while Kansas City is trading at 2.59 (implied ~38.6%). After reviewing the available previews and matchup material, we judge the true win probability for Kansas City to be higher than the market-implied 38.6% because: (1) the game is at Kansas City (home-court advantage in an early-season, non-conference setting), (2) multiple previews indicate a competitive matchup rather than a lopsided one, and (3) early-season small sample noise and travel can compress favorites’ edges. Using a conservative estimated probability of 45% for Kansas City against the current decimal price 2.59 produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 2.59 - 1 ≈ +0.166). The away price (1.60) implies ~62.5% and we do not believe Iona’s true win probability reaches that level based on the uncertainty and matchup context, so we prefer the value on the home underdog.
Summary: We find value on Kansas City at 2.59 — our conservative 45% win estimate yields about a +16.6% ROI versus the market price.