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Valencia Basket vs Real Madrid play on 2025-11-11 19:30 in the Euroleague (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 10.8%. Suggested side: Valencia Basket. Moneyline — Home: 2.13 (46.9%), Away: 1.81 (55.2%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Valencia Basket. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.13, Away: 1.81. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Valencia Basket moneyline given current prices.
We see value on Valencia at 2.13. Market-implied probability for Valencia is 1/2.13 = 0.469 (46.9%). The research shows Valencia in solid form this season (around a 63% win rate in cited season context and a top-6 EuroLeague standing), and home advantage in EuroLeague matchups versus strong opponents typically compresses margins. Conservatively estimating Valencia's true win probability at 52.0% (0.52) produces positive expectation against the market price. Calculation: EV = 0.52 * 2.13 - 1 = 0.1076 (~10.8% ROI). We therefore recommend the home side only because the current decimal price offers positive expected value versus our assessed probability.
Summary: We find value on Valencia at 2.13: our conservative 52% win estimate yields ~10.8% expected ROI versus the market price.