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Liverpool vs Chelsea play on 2025-11-16 12:00 in the England - Women Super League (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 69.0%. Suggested side: Liverpool. Moneyline — Home: 9.94 (10.1%), Away: 1.186 (84.3%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Liverpool. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 9.94, Away: 1.186. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Liverpool moneyline given current prices.
The market prices Chelsea at 1.186 (implied win probability ~84.4%) and Liverpool at 9.94 (implied ~10.1%). Our read of the provided research shows Chelsea is the stronger side historically, but Liverpool has taken 5 wins in the previous 29 meetings (~17.2%) and 1 win in the last 5 H2H (20%), and there are no reported injury/suspension concerns for either team. Given those H2H frequencies and the absence of squad news that would materially reduce Liverpool's chance, we estimate Liverpool's true win probability at 17.0%. That implies the market is materially undervaluing Liverpool (market 10.1% vs our 17.0%). At the provided Liverpool price (9.94) this produces positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.690 per 1 unit). We therefore recommend backing Liverpool only because the current odds offer clear value relative to our probability estimate; we do not recommend betting on Chelsea at 1.186 because our estimate of their win probability (~70%) produces negative EV at that price.
Summary: Market heavily favors Chelsea, but given historical Liverpool win rates and clean squads, Liverpool at 9.94 appears to offer value versus our 17% win estimate.