LiverpoolVSChelsea

Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Our lean: Liverpool. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Home: 9.94, Away: 1.186. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Best bet: Liverpool moneyline given current prices.

Details

The market prices Chelsea at 1.186 (implied win probability ~84.4%) and Liverpool at 9.94 (implied ~10.1%). Our read of the provided research shows Chelsea is the stronger side historically, but Liverpool has taken 5 wins in the previous 29 meetings (~17.2%) and 1 win in the last 5 H2H (20%), and there are no reported injury/suspension concerns for either team. Given those H2H frequencies and the absence of squad news that would materially reduce Liverpool's chance, we estimate Liverpool's true win probability at 17.0%. That implies the market is materially undervaluing Liverpool (market 10.1% vs our 17.0%). At the provided Liverpool price (9.94) this produces positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.690 per 1 unit). We therefore recommend backing Liverpool only because the current odds offer clear value relative to our probability estimate; we do not recommend betting on Chelsea at 1.186 because our estimate of their win probability (~70%) produces negative EV at that price.