Tottenham HotspurVSArsenal

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?

Our lean: Tottenham Hotspur. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?

Home: 6.12, Away: 1.4. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?

Best bet: Tottenham Hotspur moneyline given current prices.

Details

We find clear value backing Tottenham (home) at the current market price. The book market (Tottenham 6.12 => implied win probability ~16.3%) appears to undervalue Tottenham given the research: Tottenham are on a 4-0-1 run in recent matches, have scored 10 goals in their last 5 and created significant big chances, and multiple head-to-head summaries show Tottenham winning the majority of recent meetings. Arsenal's recent form is weaker in the provided sample (2-1-2) despite being a favorite. Conservatively estimating Tottenham's true win probability at 30% (higher than the market-implied ~16%), the minimum fair decimal odds would be 3.333. At the current offered odds of 6.12 we calculate EV = 0.30 * 6.12 - 1 = +0.836 (83.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). This edge remains even after accounting for uncertainty: the market would need to be correct that Tottenham's win probability is below ~16.3% for there to be no value, but our read of form, recent H2H and chance creation supports a materially higher win probability for Tottenham than the market implies. We note uncertainties (small sample sizes, possible unlisted injuries/lineup changes), but on the information provided the pricing looks misaligned and backs a Tottenham selection as value.